QF - The Next Generation

[Greg Hyde]

Now with QF confirming B787 orders. what's next ?


The oldest B717 (NXI) first flew in 1999 whist the oldest F100 (NHO) first flew in 1990.

The pure economics of operating these aircraft as well as the need for business class class seats will see the replacement of these aircraft. Probably sooner than later.

How to replace the QLink regional jets ?

[Michael R]

Was talking about this very thing on the ramp the other night Greg whilst I was working on another 717 in Sydney. Qantas did look at the Bombardier CS100 apparently for our Qlink operations on the East Coast but word is that they are happy to hold onto the 717 until at least 2019. But like anything I guess could change.

[MarkR]

I would imagine quite a few operators are looking at similar plans, such as HA etc, economics are much tighter when you have to buy a new plane vs getting someone else's reject for cheap.

[Max C]

The extra 717's are just a cheap quick fix to add capacity.

Seeing as they are the last 2 717's left in the world for lease.

No doubt something will replace them. Think the C Series or the new Embraer E-Jet as probably the front runners.

The F100's on the otherhand will probably stay in WA for a while as their cheap aquisition cost suits the low utilisation flying for the FIFO markets in WA.

[Greg Hyde]

The long term solution will be driven by economics.

Ie

* Running costs (AirNZ saves 20% fuel where B787 vs B777 on same run)
* Serviceability (Looking at QFSouce a B717 goes u/s on average once a week)
* Bums on Seats (loosing highly profitable business class to rivals)

I would say that most B717 long term operators are facing the same problem. eg: Delta

[Max C]

B717 u/s is closer to 4-5 days a week at the moment.

Especially on the East Coast.

[Dave Dale]

I think this was talked about when Qantas went to Seattle for Boeing catch up in 2013. I recall seeing their deliberations in an investor update. However, failing my finding that particular update, this article might address some of your queries.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/qantas-mulls-fleet-replacement-options-391482/

In short, mentions as potential 717 replacements:

737-7 MAX
A319neo
C Series
Embraer

[MarkR]

Good update on the market for the 100+ seat market here although it is approaching a year old:

http://leehamnews.com/2014/10/12/assessing-the-100-149-seat-sector/

[Christopher Campbell]

As for A330-300 replacement aircraft the 787-10 would be best fit for most Asia/Oceania destinations. An all Boeing international fleet which looks like where it's heading in the medium to long term will help decrease maintence costs I would think would be perfect for commonality.

B777-9/8X, A380 replacement (A380neo possible if it is available by then, but unlikely) A380 replacement from 2023-2025

B787-9, B747 replacement and growth in US, Dubai, Europe

B787-9/10, A330-300 replacement from 2021-2023 approx and future growth in Asia/Oceania

What will be the A330-200 replacement aircraft though? B787-8?

Also for the B737-800 replacement aircraft?

Does Qantas transfer the some a320neo orders to replace B737-8 but then have to retrain Qantas short haul pilots but then decrease maintence costs and other benefits by having Qantas and Jetstar both using A320neos. Or does Qantas order B737MAX and A320neo for Jetstar and not have to retrain. I think having QF and JQ having both A320neos is the best option in the long term.

Are the Qantas Groups A320neo order delivery from FY17 too FY22?

[Tom Cleary]

I think 2023-2025 is too early to be replacing the A380's, considering the youngest one would only be 14 years old. And you never know they might exercise those 8 postponed orders to replace the older A380's and 744ERS.

[Christopher Campbell]

Yeah your probably right more like from 2025-2028. Yeah they could activate those last 8 orders plus those 4 options. The A380neo might be out by then. Although I believe Qantas will choose the B7779X/8X for A380 replacement aircraft. All Boeing International (787-9/10 & B777X) fleet must be good for maintence.

[Christopher Campbell]

How long to you think they will keep the 747ERs for? Could they keep them until the B777X is available (and order the B777X just for A380 replacement aircraft) or replace them in FY2020-FY2021 with 787-9s?

[Christopher Campbell]

Or by mid too late 2020s and the A380neo is launched by then it seem more attractive with traffic numbers picking up etc.

[Christopher Campbell]

Depending on if Qantas choose either the A320neo or 737MAX could determine what B717 replacement aircraft they choose B737-7MAX or A319neo?

[Steve S... 2]

I love reading talk of A380 replacement !! Keep it coming :)

[Rowan McKeever]

Depending on if Qantas choose either the A320neo or 737MAX could determine what B717 replacement aircraft they choose B737-7MAX or A319neo?

IMHO those aircraft are too big to replace the B717s and we're more likely to be looking at C-Series or E2.

[Christopher Campbell]

Yeah I guess so. Although the 737-7MAX is only 20 seats more than the C series and with 700miles more range. But yeah the a319neo look is to be around 40 more than C series an 1700mikes more range is a bit to excessive to replace the B717. Do you think Qantas will increase the A320neo order so Qantas and Jetstar are both A320neos? Or Qantas will order the 737MAX?

[Christopher Campbell]

If Qantas did place a seperate order for the 737-8MAX for 738 replacement I believe they would head straight also to order the B737-7 MAX. Helps fleet simplification.

[Yusef D]

The Max7 is not much of an aircraft unless you need to operate out of a very small strip (<1700m), as Southwest and some Latin American customers must. All the costs of a 738 (or Max8) for fewer seats. It doesn't sell. With good reason. The A319neo and the current A319 is in a similar sales doldrum. If you want a 100 (or 120 seater) you need something designed as such. ie the CSeries or E2 range.

[Christopher Campbell]

Yeah sure I understand your point.

[Greg Hyde]

I expect that is why the F100 & DC-9 (sorry B717) are still operating.

There is no viable replacement.

A baby Boeing(Max) would suit fleet integration (spares, training etc.) with A319neo would only suit a JQ operation so that a whole new type added to the fleet.

[Christopher Campbell]

If Qantas converted the A380 orders and 4 options to A320neos to expand the overall 99 Qantas Group A320neo options then both the Jetstar and Qantas narrow body aircraft can be A320neos (which would have many benefits). Then this could make sense to order the A319neo for the 717 replacement.

[Ash W]

Yeah your probably right more like from 2025-2028. Yeah they could activate those last 8 orders plus those 4 options. The A380neo might be out by then. Although I believe Qantas will choose the B7779X/8X for A380 replacement aircraft. All Boeing International (787-9/10 & B777X) fleet must be good for maintence.

Having an all Boeing fleet makes little difference what so ever to maintenance. The 787 and 777 are different aircraft, different parts etc.

When it comes to crewing yes, may make a difference in that the 777 and 787 share a common rating. Though again if you have sufficient enough of each type the difference is minor.

[Ash W]

If Qantas converted the A380 orders and 4 options to A320neos to expand the overall 99 Qantas Group A320neo options then both the Jetstar and Qantas narrow body aircraft can be A320neos (which would have many benefits). Then this could make sense to order the A319neo for the 717 replacement.

As has been mentioned before the A319Neo is far too large as a 717 replacement. About 35-50 seats (depending upon configuration) too large.

Some airlines, Air France for example operate A318's to maintain commonality with their other A320 family aircraft, but again as others have pointed out this becomes a costly exercise as they are heavy aircraft flying 'regional' routes.

About the only airline owned A318's that operate effectively are the two BA units that fly LCY-SNN-JFK-LCY in an all business class layout. But of course people are paying a premium, even over LHR-JFK to fly this route. Two reasons, leaving from LCY and outbound it stops in Shannon Ireland to top up the tanks, and clear US Customs and Immigration, meaning on arrival in JFK the flight is a domestic arrival. But clearly the exception rather than rule.

[Christopher Campbell]

What would you think would be the best choice?

Bombardier CS100 or the Embraer E190/195-E2?

Again I believe converting A380 orders and options to A320neos adding to the 99 options to create a 130-140 order to replace JQ 320s and QF 737s

[Dave Dale]

The undelivered A380s might be sold to another carrier even before production since they would have been ordered at at prices much cheaper and probably easier to get rid of this way.

[Ash W]

What would you think would be the best choice?

Bombardier CS100 or the Embraer E190/195-E2?

Who knows. Maybe throw in the CRJ1000 into the mix too. Flew one yesterday actually, not too bad.

Again I believe converting A380 orders and options to A320neos adding to the 99 options to create a 130-140 order to replace JQ 320s and QF 737s

They don't need to convert A380 orders to do that and personally think we will see the A320 in Qantas colours.

[Greg Hyde]

Last year KLM Cityhopper completed the replacement their F70/100 fleet with E190's.

[MarkR]

The undelivered A380s might be sold to another carrier even before production since they would have been ordered at at prices much cheaper and probably easier to get rid of this way.

I am not sure that will happen give there are 150 unfilled orders yet to go into production for the A380, and competition from airlines looking to offload cheaper used aircraft like MAS