V Australia requests capacity on SYD-JNB EFF-Oct 09

[Radi K]

http://www.travelweekly.com.au/articles/77/0C058977.asp

V Australia to fly to South Africa

Virgin Blue offshoot V Australia has filed an application with the government to fly five services per week between Sydney and Johannesburg.

V Australia, which is set to launch services between Sydney and Los Angeles from December 15, wants to commence flights from October 2009.

V Australia has also applied for unlimited capacity on the US route.

5 weekly from Oct 2009.

[Michael Morrison]

Good on them. Would be great if it was actually SYD-PER-JNB as that would allow us to fly VA from SYD-PER :)

Seems that they are cherry picking QF's cash cows.... (much like VS did with BA when they launched)

[Rhys Xanthis]

I think you will find that VA will do very little/nothing in terms of domestic haul services, although i guess they could...seems to me they would like to leave it to VB (unless of course costs justified it, but i dont think so).

Plus it would have to be direct to be competitive - after all, one would rather go direct than via somewhere if cost difference isn't a big issue!

[Steve Jones]

With the downtime the fleet will have between its US services, I believe they are looking at some shorter haul use of the aircraft rather than paying to sit on the ground in Sydney... I can't say much but watch this space...

[D Chan]

I am not sure how much of a market V Australia can grab on this route if they rely on O-D traffic - what sort of traffic feed could they generate from South Africa domestically. Also worth mentioning is the existing codeshare agreement between South African and Qantas - makes it even harder for a new entrant. The history of the codeshare is both carriers were struggling on routes between South Africa and Australia and South African were on the verge of pulling out (back in 2000).

Having said that VA's equipment (77W) is much more fuel efficient and should offer a great advantage over the 744s. However they are flying over a vast area of ocean and that makes me wonder.... wouldn't ETOPS restriction be a problem (I recall seeing a chart about 180 min ETOPs and the indian ocean as well as the pacific having a 'hole' where the areas are not within 180 minutes of nearest suitable airfield)? or perhaps they will be ETOPS 240min certified?

[Montague S]

excellent that this underserved route is getting some needed competition, VA might consider Perth-Joburg in their future plans? quite a large expat population here in the west.

[Rhys Xanthis]

excellent that this underserved route is getting some needed competition, VA might consider Perth-Joburg in their future plans? quite a large expat population here in the west.

Long time no see.

Perhaps, but SAA will have an A346 in a few months on this route in a few months up from the usual A342 equipment, which gives ~extra 80 seats per flight IIRC.

SAA only do a 5 x weekly, so i suspect if any capacity is needed, a 7 x weekly will most likely occur.

And while i don't know much about how to read the ETOPS on great circle mapper (http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?PATH=syd-jnb%0D%0A&RANGE=&PATH-COLOR=red&PATH-UNITS=km&PATH-MINIMUM=&SPEED-GROUND=&SPEED-UNITS=kts&RANGE-STYLE=best&RANGE-COLOR=navy&MAP-STYLE=&ETOPS=330), it seems that the ETOPS will have to be 330 minutes rule, which the 773 can do IIRC.

Please correct me on the ETOPS if need be :)

[Radi K]

Please correct me on the ETOPS if need be :)

The B777 is rated to 180/207 minute ETOPS (or EDTO as it's now known) at the moment. 207 simply being 180 + 15%.

Boeing are currently working on getting the aircraft certified to the 240 and 330 minute marks. The two big hurdles, as always, is cargo fire suppression for that long and crew and passenger oxygen availability. It's because, worst case, is a loss of an engine (or fire) and simultaneous decompression. Long time to fly on 1 engine at 10,000ft!

[Stuart Trevena]

Hi All,

I know I keep saying this, but someone has to keep raising it.

Whay don't they ops through Melbourne, as we currently don't have a JNB flight, even though they operate over Melbourne and Geelong enoute to / from JNB??

It is rather silly for Melb. folk to fly to Sydney to board the aircraft, just to overfly Melbourne again a few hours later.

Stuart

[Andi O]

However they are flying over a vast area of ocean and that makes me wonder.... wouldn't ETOPS restriction be a problem (I recall seeing a chart about 180 min ETOPs and the indian ocean as well as the pacific having a 'hole' where the areas are not within 180 minutes of nearest suitable airfield)? or perhaps they will be ETOPS 240min certified?

Air Mauritius used to use 767's Mauritius-Melbourne and Perth-Mauritius nonstop and I believe they are about to throw on A330's to Perth so I guess there is some way to get there within the ETOPS rules.

[Montague S]

Hi All,

I know I keep saying this, but someone has to keep raising it.

Whay don't they ops through Melbourne, as we currently don't have a JNB flight, even though they operate over Melbourne and Geelong enoute to / from JNB??

It is rather silly for Melb. folk to fly to Sydney to board the aircraft, just to overfly Melbourne again a few hours later.

Stuart

probably because it costs more to land than ferrying the passengers to Sydney, I suspect that the Melbourne community of South African's wouldn't be as big to warrant the stop?.

[Marty H]

Hi All,

I know I keep saying this, but someone has to keep raising it.

Whay don't they ops through Melbourne, as we currently don't have a JNB flight, even though they operate over Melbourne and Geelong enoute to / from JNB??

It is rather silly for Melb. folk to fly to Sydney to board the aircraft, just to overfly Melbourne again a few hours later.

Stuart

Isnt viable to pay extra landing fees to pick maybe a few pax, unless there are alot of people flying upto SYD or PER to get on flights to South Africa (clearly by them not considering MEL there isnt) it anit going to happen.

[Rhys Xanthis]

http://gc.kls2.com/cgi-bin/gc?MAP-STYLE=&MARKER-STYLE=default&PATH=syd-jnb,+mel-MRU&PATH-COLOR=red&PATH-MINIMUM=&PATH-STYLE=&PATH-UNITS=mi&RANGE=&RANGE-COLOR=navy&RANGE-STYLE=best&SPEED-GROUND=&SPEED-UNITS=kts&ETOPS=180&ETOPS=207

thats with etops 180 and 207...does the greyed out area mean the aircraft cant fly in the area due to ETOPS?

[Montague S]

I think when you get into the grey your going beyond the ETOPS limit, back in 2006 QF63 was enroute from SYD-JNB and diverted into Perth for fuel, its southerly most point was 56 degrees, or about 1500nm or so from Perth, that's a pretty big diversion and quite a southerly track.

I guess to avoid the strong headwinds...but what's interesting is that 2 years later, last week, the return flight was flying very close to Perth, that gives you some idea of how good the tail wind must've been.

I'd imagine they'd want to fly a twin as far away from that black hole that is the Southern Ocean as possible, but if its flying into a head wind that's been as strong as it has over the past few weeks then they might struggle doing the entire journey.

probably be weight restricted too?

you need to input it as NM & ETOPS 180 for V Australia's fleet...so the plane is going to end up probably flying closer to Perth or even overhead.

[Rhys Xanthis]

Well unless boeing get the ETOPS permission for 330 minutes, i would say VA have to go via Perth, and possibly running a domestic leg.

[Montague S]

pretty sure the 77W is ETOPS 330 certified...but VA doesn't need a subfleet of 330 because 180 is adequate for their SYD-LAX run.

[Radi K]

pretty sure the 77W is ETOPS 330 certified...but VA doesn't need a sub fleet of 330 because 180 is adequate for their SYD-LAX run.

As mentioned above, the 777 is only rated to 180/207....it has done the 330 flight tests but it's not signed off from the FAA.

240, let alone 330, would be a big step by Oct 09. Boeing is focused on the 787 project. Therefore via PER would seem more likely.

This whole process could also be just a capacity blocking exercise. :cool:

[Ken N]

Maybe time for a reality check here.......:rolleyes:....how about you guys read CAO 82.0 and CAAP 82-1(0).

[Montague S]

how about you link us towards it, Ken?

[Ken N]

Here you go.......

http://casa.gov.au/download/orders/cao82/8200.pdf

and

http://www.casa.gov.au/download/CAAPs/ops/82_1.pdf

[Michael Morrison]

Well they have been given the frequencies.

VA amended it from being 5 per week from OCT 09 to immediate.

So they have been granted 3 x p/w effective immediately, increasing to 5 per week from OCT 09.

http://www.iasc.gov.au/pubs/2008iasc113.pdf

So I guess with 2 aircraft this year going to SYD-LAX and 3 more due next year with 1 going BNE-LAX and 1.5 doing SYD-JNB (with the .5 presumably going to bne-lax increase of freq) I guess we won't see any more new destinations in 2009.... so that leaves 2 more in 2010...

[Garry Emanuel]

Hey, let's all congratualte VA for their wonderfully generous gesture of introducing flights to JNB.

The comment about "cherry picking" is so true and very frustrating.

How quickly people forget the "commercial" motivation of DJ and presumably VA.

There will be a flurry of interest, excitement and enthusiasm from all quarters except QF.

VA will launch their flights and will "cut the ar%e" out so they can claim to be "keeping the air fare".

What happens next ?

Option 1 - the route is successful, all live happily ever after and each of VA, QF and SAA make a nice profit.

Option 2 - QF (and perhaps SAA) respond by sharpening their pencil(s) and reducing their fares. VA pay visit to ACCC to bemoan the unfair market reaction. Who wins in this case ?

Option 3 - option 2 plays out but in the interim, VA get the sh$ts (like they did with Kalgoorllie) and pull out.

It seems to me that all and sundry side with the "underdog" to take down the "tall poppy".

That's Aussie tradition.

What really gets me wound up is that QF wear the flack for all that they do and don't do and all the while, it gets attached to being "the National Flag Carrier". DJ and its associated NAC's get off relatively scott free - for fear we might offend "the million dollar Dick" (or is that billion dollar ?).

When the s^&t hits the fan, VA, DJ and whatever other abbreviation they can conjure up will be "outta here" quicker than the Captain can say "Cabin crew disarm doors and cross-check".

By then Tigger (oooops, I mean Tiger !) will have gone walking in the "thousand acre woods" with Piglet.

Now, tell me, who will we all expect to be our saviour ?

Let me guess, the carriers that both have Q in their call sign ! ! ! ! !

Cherry-picking is a hell of a lot easier than hard work. Delivers better profits too ! ! ! ! But only if the business model is sustainable - filling a plane to the gunnels with low margin passengers can only last so long.

Let's see how sustainable the DJ model of attracting low-paying "suits" really is. I've flown SYD-MEL-SYD a few times recently in peak and those lovely red PE seats are not occupied - well, not entirely true, 1 was ! ! ! !

A colleague on a "cheap and cheerful" fare got upgraded to them recently - gee, why doesn't QF do that ? I wonder ! ! ! ! !

[Michael Morrison]

Hey, let's all congratualte VA for their wonderfully generous gesture of introducing flights to JNB.

Why is competition frustrating? Surely they are going to go for the routes with the highest yields and lowest competition to start with? It doesn;t make sense for them to fly SYD-BKK or SYD-HKG currently.


VA will launch their flights and will "cut the ar%e" out so they can claim to be "keeping the air fare".

I doubt they will cut the **** out of their fares. They have said on average they want to be about 16% lower than QF.

Currently the chepaest SALE seat on this route is $2499 in economy.... I say bring on some competition.


When the s^&t hits the fan, VA, DJ and whatever other abbreviation they can conjure up will be "outta here" quicker than the Captain can say "Cabin crew disarm doors and cross-check".



And QF have been very quick to do the same recently....

PER-DPS
PER-CGK
SIN-DPS
CNS-NRT
CNS-NGO
CNS-KIX
SYD-OOL
MEL-AYQ
MEL-WOL
MEL-NRT

Then there is JQ's dropping of routes
SYD-PPP
ADL-MCY
BNE-HBA
SYD-KUL

[Radi K]

And QF have been very quick to do the same recently....

PER-DPS
PER-CGK
SIN-DPS
CNS-NRT
CNS-NGO
CNS-KIX
SYD-OOL
MEL-AYQ
MEL-WOL
MEL-NRT

QF has simply substituted JQ into some of those markets. So I wouldn't say QF has pulled out of all those regions.

As far as DPS, lets hope DJ get there act together and start operations to Bali before the end of the year.

[lloyd fox]

Garry the IASC disagrees with you see paragraph 5 and 6.

Cheers



V Australia granted immediate access to South Africa
Wednesday, August 20, 2008




V Australia has just been grated access to the Australia–South Africa route by the government due to the lack of competition and high fares currently in operation.

The Virgin Group carrier has been given immediate access and a total capacity of five weekly services between Sydney and Johannesburg using B777–300ER aircraft with a capacity of 361 seats.

In a statement the International Air Services Commission (IASC) says, “The Commission notes that the South Africa route has been characterised by limited competition for some time.”

“There are only two direct operators, Qantas and South African Airways (SAA), and they operate to separate points in Australia (Sydney and Perth respectively). Such competition as there is between them comes via a code share arrangement.”

Additionally, the IASC comments on growing traffic figures on the routes, especially during peak periods, but a lack of capacity operated by the duopoly.

“There has been little pressure on the incumbent carriers to discount air fares significantly, either to deal with competition or to attract additional traffic,” adds the IASC.

Access is conditional on V Australia starting services before the 1stof October 2009, with all five weekly return services to be in operation by the end of said month.

When e-Travel Blackboard contacted Virgin Blue for a comment, a spokesperson added that Virgin Blue was always “interested in new routes” but there were “no official dates or timing” for these rights yet.

Possible October start

Speaking at a press conference in Sydney Brett Godfrey, Virgin Group CEO, adds that South Africa won’t happen immediately, even though access has been granted so quickly.

“We have no plans at this stage,” said Mr Godfrey. “We have an ability to run by October 2009... [But] there are other routes.”

“At this point we haven’t decided.”

V Australia will see delivery of five B777-300 ERs, with three to be delivered by Christmas, one in April 2009 and one in October 2009.

The three due by Christmas have been earmarked for the already announced North American services.

April’s new craft will be to a third, as of yet unannounced destination. Currently it is highly unlikely that this will be the South African service, with Mr Godfrey saying it is “probably not a reality”.

This leaves the October B777 left on the table, and indications are good that V Australia will start South African services with the craft.

He emphasised that the speedy access to rights doesn’t mean a speedy entrance on the route, saying that the reason the government moved so quickly was due to growing demand.
“Nearly two-thirds of traffic [AUS–SA] is fuelled through a third country,” he adds.

[Rhys Xanthis]

And today QF launched a sale to Sth Africa..co-incidence? I think not!