Tropical Cyclone Yasi

[Mick F]

Afternoon all,
Have been watching the cyclones of late very closely, hoping that I won't end up back in Brisy because of more flooding in Rockhampton, but after monitoring Cyclone Yasi over the last day or so, my wish isn't looking that great if it hits anywhere near the Rocky area, :(.

Handy link, showing an animated satellite image of the South West Pacific region, TC Yasi quite visible. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

The shear size of it is absolutely amazing. It'd be interesting to know how large the area actually is that contains gail force and destructive winds, but going on what other cyclones are normally like, the gail force winds area normally is the same size as the visible cyclone itself!

One to certainly keep an eye on if you're a keen weather watcher.

Mick

[Geoff W]

Mick,

I agree that is a real monster.

Hope it chills out a bit (a lot) before it hits any part of the east coast.

With still some water to cover yet before it hits, makes that a tough ask!

My fingers are crossed for all in Qld, I think you have had more than enough for one or more years.

Kind regards,

Geoff

[Russell D]

Great link Mick. That's far better than some of the track maps the Aussie BOM website displays. Really does show the sheer size of the monster!

However, this is the BOM's current plot for Severe TC Yasi: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
The track plot has coloured regions indicating gale force, destructive, and very destructive wings.

Currently it's a Cat 3, but it's expected to intensify to a Cat 4 very close of the Townsville-Ayr coast. Definitely one to keep an eye on.

Cheers

[Jason H]

I have family in Ingham, which is right where the epicentre is expected to be. It's a bit hectic up there at the moment.

[Geoff W]

Gee Andrew I SO wish I could disagree with you, but I cant.

All the best to your family and all other board members and the whole community/ies of FNQ.

Take lots of care at this time.

Kind regards,

Geoff

[Daniel M]

Briefing for Cairns:

wouldn't want to be there at 9pm tomorrow!

CAIRNS (YBCS)
TAF YBCS 011031Z 0112/0212
15015G25KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN SCT025
FM011800 16025G35KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN025
FM020200 16035G50KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN025
FM020800 16050G70KT 6000 RAIN BKN015
FM021100 160100G140KT 2000 RAIN BKN010 OVC015
INTER 0112/0124 4000 SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN018
TEMPO 0200/0208 1000 RAIN BKN015
TEMPO 0208/0212 0500 HEAVY RAIN BKN005 OVC010
RMK
T 27 26 25 26 Q 1008 1007 1005 1005

TAF YBCS 010421Z 0106/0206
15015G25KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN025
FM011800 16025G35KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN025
FM020200 16035G50KT 9999 LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN025
INTER 0106/0124 4000 SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN018
TEMPO 0200/0206 1000 RAIN BKN015
RMK
T 30 28 26 25 Q 1006 1007 1008 1007

TTF METAR YBCS 011100Z 16009KT 9999 FEW025 SCT060 28/23 Q1008
RMK RF00.0/000.2
INTER 1130/1400 4000 SHOWERS OF RAIN BKN018

METAR YBCS 011100Z 16009KT 9999 FEW025 SCT060 28/23 Q1008
RMK RF00.0/000.2

ATIS YBCS P 011007
APCH: EXP INSTR APCH
RWY: 15
+ WIND: 140/15
VIS: GT 10 KM
CLD: FEW020 FEW030
+ TMP: 28
+ QNH: 1008

[Rob R]

At least it's straight down the runway, however it may be a very slow final.

[Daniel M]

At least it's straight down the runway, however it may be a very slow final.

...particularly in a C172!

[Craig Murray]

FM021100 160100G140KT 2000 RAIN BKN010 OVC015


That's 259.28km/h :eek:

I'll assume this to be outside the crosswind limits for most aircraft!

There are plenty of movements to/from Far North QLD this evening moving both people and aircraft to safer locations.

[Rob R]

Yep most aircraft including commercial jets have a x-wind limit of 30-40 kts. However some aircraft only list a demonstrated x-wind, which means on the day they did the test they did not get to test the full limit as there was not enough x-wind.

With that wind landing on RWY 15 in CS if your were stupid to give it a go would only give you a few Knots of x-wind, but even if the aircraft I fly which has Vref speeds for landing of 120 -140 knots final would be rather slow and not very nice:eek:

[Mick F]

Have just spent the night transferring people from Cairns to Brisbane. Just a constant stream all night of aircraft (Qantas, Virgin, Jetstar, Aeromedical) up and down the coast between the 2 cities.

Mick

[Brock Little]

Now been upgraded to Category 5. :eek:

[JamesW]

FM021100 250100G140KT 2000 RA BKN010 OVC015

Anyone fancy a 140KT direct XW? :P My iPhone app suggests about 60odd degrees of drift!! Most aircraft I fly IRL struggle to get to 140kts! Even the Aztec would have a negative GS on touchdown and that's INTO the wind!

[Steve Bottom]

Thanks for all the comments from all of you, It's 4.30pm (qld) and it's not too bad just now, i expected worse by now. wind is S/SE around 15kmh gusting around 35kmh..

Looks like Cairns may JUST escape the very worst of this thing, it's still going to be a long hard night, but at least we dont look to be getting the eye and the full force.

Spare a thought for the family's around Tully, Cardwell and Ingham, they look to have drawn the short straw.:(

[Jacob P]

Interesting Site to put the size of this cyclone in some comparison.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/how-cyclone-yasi-compares-around-the-world/story-fn7rxoal-1225998850720

[Gareth Forwood]

All the coverage of the cyclone has me curious... While it's obviously unsafe to fly through a cyclone, is it safe to fly above one? How high would the extreme winds and turbulence actually reach? And how much distance do airline pilots generally like to keep between themselves and such weather (when at cruise alt)?

[Jason H]

My best guess would be that aircraft would not want to be seen anywhere near this cyclone, but I always thought cyclones didn't reach altitudes that most thunderstorms do.

[Daniel M]

All the coverage of the cyclone has me curious... While it's obviously unsafe to fly through a cyclone, is it safe to fly above one? How high would the extreme winds and turbulence actually reach? And how much distance do airline pilots generally like to keep between themselves and such weather (when at cruise alt)?

I'm pretty sure these sort of weather phenomena extend to levels far beyond the cruise capability of any commercial aircraft (ie on the area forecast for the area of North Queensland, it has the tops at FL500)

[Dave Parer]

Have just spent the night transferring people from Cairns to Brisbane. Just a constant stream all night of aircraft (Qantas, Virgin, Jetstar, Aeromedical) up and down the coast between the 2 cities.

Mick

Hey Mick,

I was watching all the movements in and out of Cairns last night on my SBS-1. VH-FDR, VH-FDT and the Townsville based VH-FDZ were operating flights up and down the coast.

Which aircraft were you piloting?

Cheers Dave.

[Steve Bottom]

on radio yesterday, a spokesman stated it tops 40000 feet !!!

[Mick F]

G'day Dave,
I was in VH-FDZ, piloting that so that the Townsville crews could stay and look after their families and homes.

Mick

[Steve Bottom]

it' just gone 3.00am and the worst of this thing is over for me ..

House feels intact, have not been outside to check further.

we still have power !!!!!! and were all OK.

Thoughts turn to those who are not so lucky.. it's been a LONG 24hrs , but for some it is going to be a long long rebuild process.

[Russell D]

All the coverage of the cyclone has me curious... While it's obviously unsafe to fly through a cyclone, is it safe to fly above one? How high would the extreme winds and turbulence actually reach? And how much distance do airline pilots generally like to keep between themselves and such weather (when at cruise alt)?

This kind of follows on from what Gareth was asking...

In the U.S., the USAF in collaboration with NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) regularly conduct meteorological and scientific flights through the heart of thunderstorms and hurricanes. A number of different aircraft specially fitted with scientific and recording instruments are used for this purpose, including Gulfstream, P3 Orions, etc.

There are a number of videos on youtube, including one of a NOAA plane flying through the eye of hurricane Katrina which later went on to hit New Orleans.

Just wondering if we have any such flights conducted in Australia (either by the federal funded BOM or RAAF aircraft that are quickly fitted out for the purpose just prior to a storm/cyclone)?

Some links to NOAA videos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLcf9mepUro
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5YwvJhu2EY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWVMcLQioQs

[Brenden S]

Glad your OK Steve, much carnage out at the airport at all?

[Jarden S]

I was CNS today a few broken trees by the boundry and what looks like a new river that is parallel to the main runway. There was heaps of extra flights today though. Plus the China eastern and southern charters

[Mick F]

Ex-tropical cyclone Yasi is situated well and truely over land now, south east of Alice Springs. However still showing great form!

Check out this Radar image, it still looks like it's even got an eye!

Mick

[Mick F]

Great video of TC Yasi's development right through to decaying in Central Australia.

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/videos/201101-tropical-cyclone-yasi

Mick