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View Full Version : Jetstar, not Qantas, as our national airline? Stay tuned


Joe Frampton
6th February 2011, 09:54 AM
Thought this was interesting...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/jetstar-not-qantas-as-our-national-airline-stay-tuned-20110205-1ahq5.html

IT'S SHOCKING really … but who was surprised that Qantas, having promised to get stranded Australians out of Egypt, left them waiting another 13 hours in the hell of Cairo airport due to ''technical problems''.

I don't doubt the endless mechanical failures and depressurisation incidents we hear every other day are overblown.

No doubt they have always occurred routinely: it's just that passengers armed with Facebook, Twitter and video cameras didn't act as vigilante reporters in days gone by.

Still, the dismal diary of ''incidents'' reported at Qantas is surely filling to the point where the brand - once the best in Australia - is a shadow of its former self.

Moreover, beyond such intangibles as brand decay, there are verifiable facts surrounding Qantas Airways - the ASX-listed holding company that covers all the subsidiaries - which are simply inescapable.

In the case of Qantas International, the company is stuck with archaically old planes and the attempts to refresh the fleet have been delayed, significantly with the dramatic problems in the A380s.

The ''super jumbos'' were shaping up as a potential favourite among travellers until one of them had to make an emergency landing in Asia before Christmas.

The other plain truth about Qantas Airways is that strategically it is being sandwiched - rival global carriers such as Etihad are coming down hard, while its offshoot, Jetstar, is a better business on almost every measure and is moving upmarket.

No surprise then to hear that Alan Joyce, the former Ryanair and Jetstar executive who is head of Qantas Airways, is to run a strategic review of the airline.

There is talk of joint ventures, of a renewed thrust into China and other initiatives.

Yet while Joyce hints at these changes, he also comes out with very negative comments about Qantas International - last week he said the division was falling ''significantly short of expectations''.

Meanwhile, Qantas stock is steady … in fact in recent days, despite a new fuel surcharge, the share price has started to lift.

Why? Well, virtually every stockbroker in the market reckons Qantas Airways is a buy - the stock closed for the weekend at $2.41 yet the 12-month price targets from brokers range between $3 and $3.70.

The optimistic forecasts follow suggestions from analysts that Jetstar is now so strong - especially in Asia - it can deal with the drag imposed by Qantas International.

But you'd have to think that Joyce, himself a product of the low-budget Jetstar (and earlier of the ultra low-budget Ryanair), would have to consider closing down Qantas International as a potential way out of the conundrum he faces as boss of the whole show.

Joyce is highly regarded by many in the industry - crucially he has shown the ability to respond in a decisive manner to every issue thrown at him, including the unprecedented spectacle of European airports closed en masse due to clouds of Icelandic volcanic ash.

But would he move to close Qantas International, leaving us with a national airline called Jetstar? … I wouldn't rule it out; Jetstar now has the potential to be a better brand than Qantas.

Dave Dale
6th February 2011, 10:11 AM
Well I hope not. I would like to think that Qantas International would be around for a lot longer yet. Alan Joyce did say that he would not let the flagship business decay through lack of action". However, if times are so desperate for Qantas, I imagine they would call for desperate measures. But I sincerely hope not. If only the 787's were here, I am sure a lot of this speculation wouldn't be happening anyways. Furthermore, I am sure the majority of Australians, including the government, would not allow Qantas to disappear internationally.

Dave

Anthony T
6th February 2011, 10:21 AM
The day the government intervene to save QANTAS is the the day I'm out of this country.

QANTAS is a private company and should be left to survive as best it can, If it goes belly up, then so be it.

There are other Australian airlines to pick up the slack.

James K
6th February 2011, 05:14 PM
The day the government intervene to save QANTAS is the the day I'm out of this country.

QANTAS is a private company and should be left to survive as best it can, If it goes belly up, then so be it.

There are other Australian airlines to pick up the slack.

Sooo I guess you're saying DJ could pick up the slack right away with a fleet of 737s and a few 777s? So where do u think you will go that's better than here?

Anthony T
6th February 2011, 06:23 PM
DJ picked up the slack fron AN pretty quickly for an airline with half a dozen old 737-400's, they will do the same again, The current CEO has thought about this and has planned for the possible demise of QF International, I can't say anymore on this forum or I would lose my wedding tackle, watch this space:D

D Chan
6th February 2011, 07:39 PM
I guess James Kirby or SMH didn't bother to check the facts in the article before SMH released it on the internet or print? Quite an embarassing blunder!

Joyce had never worked for Ryanair - it was Aer Lingus, not Ryanair, confirmed after a 5 second search on google and the first search result, a link to Wikipedia...

Dave Dale
6th February 2011, 07:39 PM
DJ picked up the slack fron AN pretty quickly for an airline with half a dozen old 737-400's, they will do the same again, The current CEO has thought about this and has planned for the possible demise of QF International, I can't say anymore on this forum or I would lose my wedding tackle, watch this space:D

Interesting in what you say Anthony. Looking back to the demise of Ansett, I know many people were hoping for a miracle (be it government or private intervention), however there was nothing really. As Qantas is the last legacy carrier in Australia and one of the oldest airlines in the world, I can only imagine that the disappearance of Qantas at international airports would not go unnoticed and add to the already negative publicity Qantas currently loathes. I guess Mr Borghetti knows a fair bit more about Qantas than most of us ever will. Maybe Jetstar at its first inception was already hurting Qantas more than it realised? I certainly hope that Qantas will survive... It is the Australian airline and I know that some may regard the company as "private", but for many of us who travel Qantas regularly (and even those who never travel), it is quitessentially Australian and is our airline. I know I would be very saddened if I couldn't travel Qantas to overseas destinations (that's my loyalty I know). And as someone mentioned here earlier, seeing the flying Kangaroo roll up at Cairo Airport, or as it did in Phuket when the Bangkok riots were occurring would have ignited a feeling of relief and perhaps a "thank god for Qantas" exclaimed. I am sure the feeling may have been different if it were a different airline.

Dave

lloyd fox
6th February 2011, 07:58 PM
Oh you are good Andrew changing the focus off your airline onto another.
Mayby you should apply for PR positioning within the Qantas Group.

They surely need it.

Matt D
7th February 2011, 08:26 AM
And as a worst case scenario, Qantas has some 16 billion in cash to draw-down from if it needs to.


Not sure about the $16billion cash. Qantas most recent annual report shows:

Debt steadily increasing, asset values unchanged, revenue trending down, profits significantly down two years running.

If I ran a company with such gloomy figures I'd be looking to change strategy too.

The details from Qantas' 2010 report:
Cash $3.7b
Debt $5.1b (up 40% in 2 years). But increased debt hasn't led to an increase in asset values (acft etc)..... asset values have remained at $19b for 5 years now
Revenue $14b (down two years running)
Profit $116m (down almost 90% in 2 years from $970m)

http://www.qantas.com.au/travel/airlines/investors-full-year-results-2010/global/en

Andrew P
7th February 2011, 10:09 AM
if they had that much cash, they should make a capital repayment to all shareholders ASAP