Airfares heading up as carriers protect profits

[Andrew Johnson]

from the Australia this morning

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/airfares-heading-up-as-carriers-protect-profits/story-e6frg95x-1226256681084

Planning on going to USA in late December & coming home mid January & looking at both QF & VA websites & fares are all over $3000.

Asking around a few agents & they say it's because of cuts to capacity like FJ now only operating their 747-400's SYD/NAN 3 days a week (2 x 737's other days), which means less cheap seats SYD/NAN/LAX/NAN/SYD & as other carriers, no longer have to match the lower FJ fares, these lower fare buckets have disappeared on QF & VA.

[Andrew P]

I really don't think QF & VA price their fares based on what some little provincial airline like Air Pacific sets

[Andrew Johnson]

I really don't think QF & VA price their fares based on what some little provincial airline like Air Pacific sets

FJ currently has 2 x 458 seat 744's (ex AN, ex SQ) which currently fly NAN/LAX/NAN 4 times a week (were 5 times a week during peak season a few weeks back)

When they get their 3 brand new A332's next year, wouldn't be surprised if they go to daily.

Fj were cheapest around for quite a while (except going via Asia), but now often VA, QF, NZ etc. have cheaper fares, but probably not many in quantity.

Think QF with soemthing like 46% ownership, would have a lot of input into the goings on at FJ.

[Ash W]

So at the peak there were 2290 seats per week on that route. However how many were flying SYD-NAN-SYD or LAX-NAN-LAX and how many were flying SYD-NAN-LAX-NAN-SYD?

If I were a betting man I would say the numbers going end to end, even if cheaper would have been small, as a percentage of all the seats SYD-LAX on all airlines.

Also the article you posted has nothing what so ever to with Air Pacific cuting flights, nor would I think Air Pacific cutting flights is having any major effect on prices SYD-LAX. If anything I would suggest the dates you are choosing are peak times where prices naturally go up due to higher demand over Australian Christmas school holidays.

[Andrew Johnson]

Ash W, you miss the point.

No matter how many passengers fly SYD/NAN/LAX (& suggest there are a lot, if FJ cheapest of direct carriers & there were for a long time there) if Air Pacific have some, even a small number of cheap seats (not compared to going via Asia) compared to QF, NZ, UA, VA, DL, then these carriers are more than likely going to have to have some similar fares to seem to be competing.

How small a number of these cheap seats these carriers carriers have to have ?

Well that's debateable, but sometimes thay have a very small number, with a small number at a slighlt higher fare & so on.

It's a bit like real estate, supply only has to exceed demand ever so slightly for prices to fall & conversely, if supply cut, then demand will exceed supply (obviously this is simplied).

By FJ making some SYD/NAN flights which were operated by 747-400 (458 seats) at around 1400, now operated by either a 737-800 or -700 (160 to 120 seats) regardless of the fact that they may have an earlier 737 flight at 0630, means there are less cheap seats to go SYD/NAN/LAX straight thru, menaing less cheap seats to dump, so other carriers don't have to match.

Catch then, is the average punter thinks this is the benchmark price.

Same with Asia Aisa X pulling out of London, Paris & India.

UK govt has shot themselves in the foot by increasing taxes.

They will probably end up with less total taxes recd as it's at lower price point, that people are price sensitive & will opt not to go at all or go somewhere else apart from UK for a holiday.

So not only will they not go to UK at all & not spend anything in UK, but other carriers, of which there are mny combinations to UK from OZ, will not have to match anything likw Air Asia X fares(with the extra aded in) & so less people again will go to the Uk & so creating vicious circle, at a time when the UK economy is in the toilet & they need every penny that tourists may spend.

Conversely, UK govt would have been better reducing taxes to zero & the revenue spend by tourists, would have more than made up for the loss of what are often ridiculous txes in the 1st place.

[Andrew M]

Planning on going to USA in late December & coming home mid January & looking at both QF & VA websites & fares are all over $3000.

Asking around a few agents & they say it's because of cuts to capacity like FJ now only operating their 747-400's SYD/NAN 3 days a week (2 x 737's other days), which means less cheap seats SYD/NAN/LAX/NAN/SYD & as other carriers, no longer have to match the lower FJ fares, these lower fare buckets have disappeared on QF & VA.

Nothing to do with cuts to capacity!

You are traveling during peak season, the worst possible time, therefore the highest airfares.

Pretty simple really

Fares from Australia to the USA over the next few months and even later this year are around $1100-1200 return

[David Knudsen]

http://www.news.com.au/travel/news/cheap-flights-lure-aussies-to-us/story-e6frfq80-1226258400745

A RECORD number of Australians are expected to travel to the US this year as airlines slash their fares to around $1000. Visit USA estimates more than one million Australians will travel to America in 2012."It's a remarkable number considering the population is 22 million,'' Visit USA spokesman Mark Sheehan said.
...
He said return fares from Melbourne to Los Angeles were available from $994, Sydney to LA from $1065 and Brisbane to LA from $1078.

My wife and I are looking at heading over to the states in either Sept/Oct/Nov and I'm struggling to find anything under $1800 return on Qantas in that period, hopefully there will be some sales later in the year.

[Nigel C]

So why not fly Delta, VAus or worst case, United instead?

[David Knudsen]

The only reason everyone has left to fly Qantas Nige...FF points. Hoping to use what we have to upgrade to Y+

In Sept/Oct from what I can see on V Aus out of Brisbane, the prices are very similar to QF anyway, 800-1000 each way.

[Nigel C]

The only reason...?

:eek:

[Andrew Johnson]

2nd half SEP/start of OCT is school holidays. Won't be anything like $1000 fares up to a week before school holidays to USA or week after. Many people don't think twice about taking kids out of school for week or 2 to make big savings.

[Andrew Johnson]

Nothing to do with cuts to capacity!



it has everything to do with cuts in capacity. We always try & book flights to USA around Xmas, as soon as they are loaded.

This time last year, we could get heaps of seats on many airlines for Xmas 2011 for $1800-$2000.

Now looking at $3000+.

Wouldn't fly UA if you paid me, they crash far too often & have terrible old & tired 744's.

[Ash W]

When exactly was United last crash that has lead to deaths? By my reckoning it would have been September 11 2001 and involved hijacking.

It is statements such as this that makes you loose credibility.

[Andrew M]

You do NOT get seats over Xmas for $1800, this Xmas just past, they were $2500 plus!!!!

UA - Crashing too often..... Not even worth attempting to explain sometimes

[Andrew Johnson]

You do NOT get seats over Xmas for $1800, this Xmas just past, they were $2500 plus!!!!



yes they were as low as $1800. Know because some of the family booked them in Jan 2011.

Just found some fares for around $2200 flying Qantas metal in one direction & Qantas code share in other on ebay of all places.

[Andrew M]

Wow that sounds great then, where can I find these cheap fares ?

[Anthony T]

I currently looking at Air Pacific SYD-(NAN)-LAX out 15/12 back 05/01 for AUD 1785.32.

Try Skyscanner to compare prices, not ebay :)

[Mick F]

Andrew, what is it that you do? Travel industry?

May I suggest you do some research on the airlines you are commenting on, particuarly comments which could be seen as defamatory, such as:

Wouldn't fly UA if you paid me, they crash far too often

Could you please, detail all of the crashes in the last 20 years and also so that we are aware of the frequency per flying hour, the number of incidents per 1 million flying hours.

That may change your tune....

Mick

[Andrew Johnson]

I currently looking at Air Pacific SYD-(NAN)-LAX out 15/12 back 05/01 for AUD 1785.32.

Try Skyscanner to compare prices, not ebay :)

When I rang Air Pacific, they said that sort of fare doesn't apply for December, but does apply for departure from now until some time in June.

So don't really want to get caught up in some error.

Friend bought some tickets to Queenstown last winter I think it was, at some incredible prices on Air NZ website, only to get a phone call later from Air NZ to say that it was wrong & they had to pay so much extra (& it was a lot).

Not sure of legal position, but online sales errors probably covered in the fine print somewhere.

[Andrew M]

I can't see those cheap Ebay fares ?

Any ideas Andrew Johnson ?

I need to get some tickets for the dates you mentioned