Canberra is an option to some extent, although it is not a major airport, and EK have no suuport there. They are familiar, and operate to, Sydney. It also assumes that they have the fuel to fly to ML, hold for the appropriate time, make an approach, then divert to Canberra. That is a fair amount of fuel.
If there is fog forecast at Tulla, it is highly unlikely there wouldn't be fog (or at least low visibility) forecast for Avalon. It also assumes that Avalon is approved as an alternate airport by Emirates - it might not be.
A diversion really isn't a big deal, and tactics definitely come into it.
For what it is worth, an aircraft that doesn't have the fuel to hold, but does have the fuel to divert, would be expected to divert.
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