VBH Preliminary Operating Stats May 2009

[Greg McDonald]

Some interesting figures on here for those that are interested:

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsId=00964237

[BradR]

Summary would be that domestic ops are holding up remarkably well. Int'l is a black hole that is consuming all of the domestic profits and more. DJ will be looking to doing somethig with int'l sooner rather than later. The Delta connection may help but otherwise I would expect that DJ will be acquired by Air NZ or the US operation will be shut. Pacific Blue will continue regardless though NZ domestic ops will have to be restructured as the current capacity dumping by JQ, DJ and NZ can't go on.

[Michael Morrison]

Originally Posted by BradR

Int'l is a black hole that is consuming all of the domestic profits and more. .

Whilst VA apears to be the black hole, the loads for VA in June seem to be much better... they have gone out full on several days this month. I think May in general is a quiet time for air international air travel... the BTRE stats show it as the slowest month.

As for Pacific Blue, a few of their flights are capped ... would the load factor be calculated on the capacity (180seats) or the capacity available for sale (ie150 seats?)

If it is based on 180 seats then the LF would be lower, but those flights charge $$ for the tickets and then earn considerable extra $$ in excess charges... so yield would be ok on those despite the lower LF I presume???

[Michael Morrison]

QF's stats are out today also... JQ domestic declined 1.6$ and QF domestic 4.6%.

QF Int declined 13.5% but JQ INT increased 51%.

Interestingly DJ only carried about 30,000 lesss domestic pax than QF mainline for May.

[Marty H]

QF must be flying around alot of near empty B763's if that is the case Mick

[Ricky T]

Originally Posted by Marty H

QF must be flying around alot of near empty B763's if that is the case Mick

I believe QF is a lot smarter than flying near empty B763s Marty . Firstly, they can easily swap it for a 73H or 734 if there are insufficient pax for a 763 but enough to completely fill a 734 or 73H.

Secondly, they can also cancel flights (which they did on the SYD-MEL route with flights roughly every hour during non-peak hours).

There are lots of things QF (and as a matter of fact DJ) can and will do to avoid flying empty planes.

Speaking of empty planes, I can't help to think how empty my recent CBR-SYD flight on DJ was, accordingly to my logbook, only 28 out of the 78 seats on the E70 was filled. Granted it was a Sunday night flight but I would have thought there would be a bit more than 28.

[Jarden S]

Made good reading, positive news for the airline. Some points are:


Domestic passengers up 5.1% from YTD may 08 to YTD may 09

International passengers up 68% from YTD may 08 to YTD may 09

Total passengers carried from 15.3 million to 16.8 million 10% change

Average size of fleet gone from 58 to 75.2 in YTD may 09 up 29%

On time performance gone from 80.5% to 81.9% YTD may 09

[Steve Jones]

Hi Brad, whilst you may well be right, I don't think you can make that assumption based on the figures provided, which are purely operational.

Also, whilst domestic loads and pax are doing OK, there is nothing said about yield, and hence for all we know, domestic is also haemorrhaging cash (though, as you say, I suspect it is holding up OK in the current environment, and much better than Qantas mainline domestic).

Going off on a tangent somewhat, it seems that the current crisis is seeing a shift in business traffic on domestic routes - people who traditionally would only fly Qantas are starting to see Virgin as a real alternative. You still get FF points, a good lounge product and high frequency of flights (allowing flexibility), but for a lower price. The result is that Virgin pax numbers are still increasing and Qantas is going backwards. Obviously QF is cushioned somewhat by Jetstar which is also benefiting from the trend of passengers moving towards the lower cost end of the market.

[Jon B]

I know this is not an exact measure but i fly almost evry week on Virgin - usually Mel - Syd Tuesday at 07:15 and return Thursdays around 17:15 Since early this year you can almost guarentee that the middle seats will not be occupied so that takes out 54 pax per 737 - 800. Likewise no one ever in Premium Economy unless they are uprgading pax. Thus thye must be doing very well on leisure routes / outside peak times. But lets hope it all bounces back so we have a strong airline sector