VARA A320 VH-VKQ currently flying PER CNS using its rego as its callsign - first of the two fleet departures?

All VARA A320s will be gone by next year

Replaced by the E2s?

No, NGs and seasonally the MAX.

The A320 gap is being filled by the 737NG for the time being and the E2 is a replacement for the F100. Alliance and Airnorth are currently doing some flying for VARA now.

VKQ is currently on its way across the Pacific to the US where it is expected to be scrapped.

PER-CNS-APW-KOA-VCV or MZJ

I wouldn't put money on your "educated guesses" as VKQ has landed at P08 (Coolidge, AZ) where the QF A319's were stored.

IXK is scheduled to enter service this arvo with VA1394, BNE to ADL

VKQ was deleted from the VH-Reg on 19/03/2025 as 11.130 - Cancelled - Registration Holder Request - Exported to - United States of America

It is expected to be scrapped